2012 Election

2012 Obama-Romney Election

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Image: White House photo by Pete Souza

Image: Gage Skidmore 6 CC by SA 3.0/Wikimedia Commons

In the presidential election on November 6, 2012, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden were elected to a second term, defeating the Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and his running mate, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

Of the total 129,237,642 votes cast, the Democratic ticket received 51.02% to 47.15% for the Republicans. In the Electoral College, President Obama received 332 votes to 206 votes for Governor Romney, with the Democrats taking the majority of the votes in 26 states (and also in the District of Columbia) and the Republicans winning in 24 states. The Libertarian Party presidential candidate Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor who had withdrawn as a candidate for the Republican nomination to become the Libertarian nominee, received 1,275,951 votes, just under 1% of the total vote--the highest vote for a third-party presidential candidacy since the 2000 race of Ralph Nader as the nominee of the Green Party.

The election was the most expensive in history, with total spending of some $7 billion comprised of spending by candidates of about $3.2 billion; of parties another $2 billion; and of other outside political committees more than $2.1 billion. The election also was the first held after the United States Supreme Court's 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission allowing corporations and unions to spend unlimited money, enabling Super PACs (political action committees) to spend any amount as long as they had no coordination with the candidates they support. Although specific amounts of contributions cannot be determined given the confidential status accorded to giving to Super PACs, the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson was estimated to have given at least $100 million, and possibly as much as $150 million, during the election cycle, primarily in support of the Republican candidacies of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.

Electoral Votes by State, 2012 Election
Obama 332, Romney 206
Source: Wikimedia Commons

Republican Nomination

        The campaign for the Republican nomination reflected the ideological split within the Party, with right wing candidates advancing conservative policies contesting against those viewed as more moderate in their positions on fiscal and social issues. Governor Romney was generally seen as the candidate preferred by the traditional Republican establishment, with his past career as a financier and businessman particularly attractive to Wall Street executives and other wealthy donors. More conservative members of the party, however, questioned the policies Romney had advanced as governor, particularly his advocacy of the statewide health insurance reform program that was later seen as the model for the Affordable Care Act or "Obamacare," which became a primary target of Republican attacks. Some key Republicans seeking an alternative to Romney, such as Karl Rove, Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes, unsuccessfully attempted to persuade New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to become a candidate, but Christie stayed out of the race, eventually backing Romney.

       At various points in the campaign, Romney was challenged by businessman Herman Cain, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Representative Ron Paul, Representative Michele Bachmann, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.

    In addition to the merits of Obamacare, the campaigns focused heavily on domestic issues, including the Obama Administration's responses to the fiscal crisis through the spike in federal spending intended to spur economic recovery and job creation; the long-term federal debt; the future of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare; and potential cuts in tax rates. Debate over foreign policy centered on the Administration's phase-out of the Iraq War, the level of spending on the military, and counter-terrorism programs.

       The first major event of the Republican campaign was the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa, which took place on August 13, 2011. Michele Bachmann won the straw poll, which ultimately proved to be the high point of her campaign as she later withdrew after a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses in the next year. After a poor showing in the straw poll, Governor Pawlenty ended his campaign.

       Texas Governor Rick Perry, the last candidate to enter the campaign in August and who was expected to emerge as a leading contender, performed poorly in the debates, famously failing to recall the name of the third of three federal departments he pledged to abolish. Perry later withdrew as a candidate shortly before the South Carolina primary when polls showed he had little support in the state. Although relatively unknown at the beginning of the campaign, Herman Cain's strong debate performances saw his poll numbers increase through the fall of 2011. Cain's campaign collapsed, however, after disclosures by several women of past incidents of sexual harassment, as well as one woman's claim that she and Cain had engaged in a long extra-marital affair. Newt Gingrich, who had attracted a few wealthy contributors funding his Super PAC such as Sheldon Adelson, also gained more support in October and November on the basis of his showings in the debates. Just before the end of the year, Governor Johnson also ended his campaign for the Republican nomination when polls reflected little support for him in New Hampshire and later became the presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party.

       Governor Romney's status as the front-runner was challenged by the results in the early contests. In Iowa, he finished in a virtual tie with Senator Santorum, with Santorum's narrow 34-vote victory only confirmed after a recount completed following the New Hampshire primary. Although Romney won in New Hampshire, that victory was largely discounted by the media and political analysts, given the visibility he had achieved as the governor of adjacent Massachusetts, along with his ownership of a vacation home in New Hampshire. After coming in third in New Hampshire, Huntsman withdrew as a candidate. In South Carolina, Romney was soundly defeated by Newt Gingrich, provoking doubts over whether he would be able to carry other southern states.

       Santorum's surprising success in Iowa led to a rise in his national poll standing, as well as an influx of contributions from social conservatives and Christian evangelicals supporting his strong opposition to gay marriage and abortion. On February 7, Santorum unexpectedly carried Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado and overtook Romney in nationwide opinion polls. The Romney campaign, however, soon regrouped, effectively using its advantage in fundraising. In the Super Tuesday primaries on March 6, Romney won six states, Santorum carried three, and Gingrich won only his home state of Georgia.

       Although Santorum later won Kansas and three southern primaries, he was unable to substantially cut into Romney's lead in delegates. By early June, Romney had secured enough delegates through primaries, caucuses and conventions, along with pledges from uncommitted delegates, to clinch the nomination. Some two weeks before the Republican National Convention commenced at the end of August in Tampa, Romney announced that he had selected Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who was credited with developing the Republican Party’s plan for tax and spending cuts and had proposed reshaping the Medicare program to promote private insurance for retirees, as his running mate for vice president.

Republican National Convention

       Although Romney's nomination was no longer in doubt by the time the National Convention convened, the Party's careful planning to showcase their candidate was upset by two unexpected events. First, Governor Christie's keynote address departed from past patterns by failing to praise the nominee's background and qualifications, focusing instead on Christie's own record as governor. Second, the actor and director Clint Eastwood, whom Romney had personally invited to speak at the Convention after seeing Eastwood address a prior event, appeared at the podium on stage to conduct a strange question-and-answer exchange with an empty chair, which Eastwood explained represented President Obama. The publicity given Eastwood's quixotic performance distracted from the night's intended focus on Romney, with Stuart Stevens, Romney's

senior strategist who was watching just offstage with Romney, reported to be so upset that he “excused himself, went into another room and vomited.”

General Election

The general election campaign featured three debates between Obama and Romney, as well as one between Vice President Biden and Congressman Ryan. In the first debate

held on October 3 in Denver, the consensus opinion of media and political commentators was that Romney outperformed the President, with some finding that Obama appeared unfocused and rambling. A Gallup Poll taken after the debate reported over 70% of those surveyed believed that Romney won the debate.

First Obama-Romney Debate, October 3, 2012

The Democratic ticket later recovered, however, as Vice President Biden was viewed as superior to Ryan in their debate and the President was rated as besting Romney in the final two debates. In the second debate, Romney also was mocked for his comment that in attempting to recruit women to join his administration in Massachusetts, he went to a number of women's groups and "they brought us whole binders full of women."

Democrats attempted to portray Governor Romney's vast wealth as putting him out of touch with the concerns of the average voter. They also pointed to his business career, which involved investments in or acquisition of companies which later laid off much of their workforce, as evidence of a lack of compassion for workers. At a private campaign fundraiser, Romney also made comments that the Democrats exploited as signs he had no empathy for the poor, saying "There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what...who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims. ...These are people who pay no income tax. ...and so my job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

Governor Christie and President Obama on tarmac at Atlantic City International Airport on October 30, 2000. Image: White House

At the end of October, attention on the last week of the campaign was diverted by Hurricane Sandy, a storm that devastated large areas of New Jersey, New York City and Long Island and Connecticut. In a visit to inspect damage in New Jersey six days before the November 7 election, Governor Christie warmly greeted the President, clasping him in what some described as a "hug," and later publicly praised the President's response to the storm as “outstanding,” “incredibly supportive” and deserving “great credit.” Republican insiders subsequently harshly criticized Christie's actions as a factor undermining Romney's attacks on the President as the campaign entered its final days. They also cited Christie's keynote address at the National Convention when he emphasized his own accomplishments but made little reference to Romney as further demonstrating his lack of commitment to Romney's cause.

According to later accounts, the Republican team was extremely confident of a victory on election day of November 7. They believed that the President would be unable to match the high turnout levels among African Americans of his first election, and that independent voters would skew more heavily to the GOP than they had in 2008. Shortly before the election, internal Romney campaign polling also fueled the optimism, showing Romney ahead or close to Obama in states which ultimately went Democratic.

On election night at around 11:15 PM Eastern time, the networks declared that Obama had won Ohio, which was considered the most crucial swing state since no Republican had ever won the Presidency without carrying it, and Romney prepared to concede the race. He delayed doing so, however, when Karl Rove, serving as a commentator on Fox News and also head of one of the largest Romney Super PACs, strenuously objected to that network's decision to declare Obama the winner in Ohio. But after Colorado and Nevada also were called for the Democrats, Obama had secured enough electoral votes to win even if the Ohio tally were to later swing Republican. Obama's final margin subsequently grew when Florida and Virginia both eventually recorded majorities for the Democrats. Romney phoned Obama to concede at around 1:00 AM Eastern time.

President Obama taking call on election night from Governor Romney conceding election. Image: White House photo by Pete Souza

Governor Romney and President Obama meet in White House following the election. Image: White House photo by Pete Souza

Resources
* Barack Obama: Campaigns and Elections >> Miller Center, University of Virginia
* Election of 2012 >> American Presidency Project, University of California, Santa Barbara
* 2012 Election >> Politico.com

Education
* Election 2012: Teaching Ideas and Resources >> New York Times
* Election 2012: Stephen Colbert Report and the Role of Political Satire >> Morningside Center for Teaching Social Responsibility

Books